02.01.2025
This year, the crypto market has been in a frenzy. The biggest superstar of 2024 is by no means bitcoin, which finally broke through the $100,000 mark that many experts had been predicting for a long time.
This was the turning point of the next bull cycle we're in now, and many experts are pretty sure it's just the beginning.
What is a bull market in crypto?
When the crypto market is in its bull phase, you'll definitely hear traders saying that it's a good market. The main characteristic of any bull market is the strong upward trajectory of price movements. During this period, you will often hear the term ATH (all-time high).
In a bull crypto market, prices usually rise by up to 20%. This is followed by the aforementioned investor optimism and high media coverage.
But is it possible to predict where prices and the bull market are going? Experienced traders will tell you that there is no 100% magic solution. However, there are some technical indicators that can help you explore the big picture and not miss the bullish trend right from the start.
Spot a bull run early with technical indicators
The crypto bull run can be triggered by a number of obvious and non-obvious factors. Experts have summarised the number of factors that differ bull and bear markets and have influenced the bull market before, and here's what they got. Crypto bull markets happen with changes in the bitcoin ecosystem
Bitcoin halving
A decrease in bitcoin supply usually means that the price will rise along with the media attention and investor interest that results. The third bitcoin halving, which took place in May 2020, reduced the reward to 6.25 bitcoins per block. This halving came amid growing interest in cryptocurrencies in general, highlighting the continued maturation of bitcoin as a financial asset.
Rising inflation in traditional financial markets
The biggest inflation so far occurred as a result of COVID-19 and made investors turn their attention to alternative financial markets such as a crypto market.
New market trends & ways of crypto implementation
The 2020 crypto bull run was accompanied by the growing interest in NFTs - this was the time when many creators and artists really paid attention to the crypto market and understood the ways to implement their craft here. As soon as there is a new global crypto event, there will definitely be another spike.
Low interest rates
Low interest rates usually mean that there's less point in holding traditional financial assets such as bonds, and it's high time to switch to other ways of generating passive income such as cryptocurrencies, NFTs, etc. Thus, investor confidence in crypto rises as well as the percentage of their investments in alternative markets and market sentiment generally.
Media coverage
Let the chips fall where they may. NFT has been named the word of the year in 2021, and it's the obvious result of last year's bull run. The more media coverage the crypto industry gets, the more influencers like Elon Musk, Michael Saylor and Snoop Dog talk about bitcoin and other crypto, the more likely it is that we're on the cusp of another crypto bull run.
However, every bull run has a few stages. After the great rise of bitcoin, the next altcoin stage is inevitable. Here are the factors to consider during this phase.
Bitcoin dominance
The first indicator of any crypto bull run is of course the change in the price of bitcoin. As soon as you notice that BTC's dominance starts to diminish and other cryptocurrencies start to rise, it's time to get ready for the altseason and one of the bull markets ahead.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
This index shows when certain crypto assets have an excess of buying or selling - indicating a broader bullish or bearish trend. When the RSI is around 70%, the digital currency is usually overbought and when the RSI is below 30%, it's the other way around.
Moving Average
This data shows the average price of a particular crypto over a period of time (usually 20-200 days). If the price is above a long-term moving average, it indicates a bullish upward trend.
Are we in a crypto bull market in 2024?
It all started in January this year when the SEC approved bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This signalled to both traditional and crypto investors that the border between the two financial worlds was now blurring.
Moreover, the impending halving event also influenced the price of bitcoin, which reached the $60,000 mark in early 2024. The next big shift came after the re-election of Trump in November, who is widely known for his support of the crypto ecosystem and has already appointed cryptocurrency advisors to his team.
Elon Musk has also been appointed to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and has already visited Capitol Hill to discuss some key cryptocurrency issues with leading politicians.
However, this is only the beginning of the big crypto bull run cycle. Experienced traders know for a fact that bitcoin's big rise is usually followed by the altcoin season, and we're already seeing some signs of this in the bull market.
According to BlockchainCenter, the Altcoin Season Index is now at 49, so it hasn't started yet. When 75% of the top 50 altcoins on the list outperform the world's leading cryptocurrency over the last season (90 days), then it's altcoin season.
However, there are positive movements that show we're on the verge of altcoin change. XRP has already reached its all-time high of $3.84 in 2018, and is showing significant growth related to the launch of XRP Trust. According to experts, the price of XRP could reach $10 by 2025.
In addition, Dogecoin saw a remarkable 110% increase in one week. This is obviously linked to Elon Musk's political activities in Trump's cabinets.
And these are just a few examples of the impending altcoin rise we're waiting for.
Buy early in the bull run
Now that you know the factors that influence the bull run and bear markets as well, it's time to figure out your best crypto bull market strategies and it's always about doing your due diligence. Research every crypto before investing and never invest more than you can lose.
Always diversify your holdings.
Make sure that half of your portfolio (or more) is held in less volatile assets. Use several factors to assess the coin's prospects (as they can all be volatile):
Previous high
Past performance
Roadmaps
Plan your exit strategy.
Remember that all bullish cycles come to an end with a bear market start, and you need to exit not only to make back your initial investment but also to make a profit (preferably 5-10x). Remember that there's always a FOMO effect, so don't focus on opportunities you've missed. Your main task is to make more than you invested.
Keep up with the news.
Subscribe to crypto channels, follow prices daily on coin aggregators, remember that global economic and political news also affect crypto prices, so make sure you follow them as well.
How long does a crypto bull market last?
Right now all the factors signal that we’re just at the end of the first phase of bull run 2024-2025 or even earlier. Historically the length of a bull run is usually from several months to over a year. This bull run will definitely be the shortest one if we consider that it has already been amonth since one of the most considerable BTC ATH in 2024.
To date, Bitcoin ETFs continue rising. According to Coinglass, IBIT has grown to an AUM of over $56 billion, while all spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively amassed an AUM of over $117 billion.
This is definitely a litmus test of the next upcoming growth that expects us at the next turn of the financial road.
During previous bull runs altcoins started to move alongside bitcoin and then outperformed it. Many experts think that this bull run won’t be an exception. BTC price is already boosting optimism over all the crypto sector.
It may happen so that we’re not even at the end of the bitcoin bull run phase. The emergence of the spot BTC ETF became the solid foundation of institutionalizing this crypto asset. Thus, its volatility may lower up to 50%.
As volatility lowers, it will become a tradition to keep at least 5% of bitcoin in portfolio for any investor, especially on the bull market.
Central banks may add Bitcoin to their holdings too.
On December 17, Ohio became the latest US state to consider adding Bitcoin to its treasury reserves, while Texas and Pennsylvania already called for establishing Bitcoin reserves.
In the bear case scenario (the bull phase lasts 15% longer than the previous cycle), the bull run is expected to end around March 2026. If it's 25% longer, the bull run could last until June 2026.
In any case, use the information wisely, consult experts if necessary and take into account all the other factors you can.
Current articles
